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Apple sold 3 million third-generation iPads during its opening weekend earlier this year.
Munster is comparatively small sales for the iPad mini because it will only be available as a wifi model. Also, it's a new size iPad, which consumers might not be ready for just yet.
And now, a word of caution.
When the iPhone 5 went on sale, Munster called for 6 million phones sold over opening weekend at the very least. Apple only sold 5 million. He predicted 1 million third generation iPads sold, Apple sold 3 million. He called for 600-700,000 first generation iPads sold opening weekend, Apple did 300,000.
Munster's forecasts have not been on point all the time. But, he's setting expectations for what investors should look for from Apple, so it's good to be aware of the number.
Here's the explanation from his note:
We believe Apple could sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend, which compares with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March. Our estimate includes pre-ordered devices. We note that the iPad Mini will launch in 34 countries compared to 10 for the 3rd Gen iPad, but the 3rd Gen iPad launch included LTE versions of the device, while the Mini launch will not. The reason we expect fewer iPad Minis compared to the 3rd Gen is because of the lack of the wireless option and newness of the smaller form factor for consumers, with smaller sized tablets accounting for about 20-25% of overall market units. We believe that over time that will change, and consumers will gradually realize the benefits of the smaller form factor iPad, which will drive adoption, although it may not take form in lines for tomorrow's launch.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/ipad-mini-opening-weekend-sales-estimate-2012-11
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